Real Estate with Mr. G

NAR will revise its bullish 14% sales jump as a result of market reaction to Trump’s war in Iran

by Taylor Anderson (INMAN)

• The National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) chief economist, Lawrence Yun, is revising his previous forecast for home sales in 2026 downward due to the rapid rise in interest rates, which has reduced buying power heading into the spring homebuying season.
• Yun had initially predicted a 14 percent jump in home sales for 2026, but now expects this forecast to be revised downward as mortgage rates have pushed above 6 percent, a critical threshold for buyers battling historically high housing prices.
• The increase in mortgage rates, which jumped from below 6 percent to 6.6 percent after the start of the military campaign in Iran, has caused buyers to pull back, and Yun acknowledges that sales had already opened the year “sluggish” before the rate increase.
• Despite the revised forecast, Yun still believes that there will be some growth in overall home sales this year, but at a slower rate than initially anticipated, and notes that buyers are slowly regaining some semblance of affordability as wages continue to rise faster than home prices.
• The NAR is preparing to publish a new forecast table, possibly before Yun’s appearance at Inman On Tour Nashville later this month, which will reflect the revised downward forecast, with Yun stating that “the general direction is that we are not going to get the 14 percent increase in unit sales this year”.
• According to Yun, buyers are not yet prepared to accept mid-6 percent rates as a level they can work with, as mortgage rates are the primary way for buyers to gain any affordability edge, especially with home prices lingering around record highs.

Read entire article at: Realtors Expected Home Sales to Jump This Year. Not Anymore | Inman Real Estate News